It turns out there is a way to succeed as a stock picker in this difficult market: Just pick the stocks the pros don't like.
Active fund managers have been getting clobbered this year, with just 16 percent outperforming basic indexes in 2016. That inability to generate alpha has played a large part in investors flocking to the exits from traditional, actively managed mutual funds and plowing money into passive exchange-traded funds, most of which track benchmarks like the S&P 500.
In all, $221.7 billion has fled actively managed funds over the past 12 months, while $174.8 billion has gone to their passive counterparts, according to Morningstar.
For those willing to keep playing in the stock-picking arena, though, there's a fairly simple and intuitive solution. The least-loved stocks by active managers have outperformed the most-loved by 13 percentage points in 2016, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, providing investors a reason to steer clear of the herd mentality that too often permeates investor psychology.
Pitting most-loved against least-loved has been a solid strategy for the past several years, but too often gets ignored in a momentum-driven market.
To be sure, stock picking continues to be a rough game.
Hedge funds saw core performance rise 6.4 percent in the third quarter, a move generated in tandem with the $2.9 trillion industry cutting its stock exposure and amping up its ETF holdings by $8.5 billion in the quarter, which BofAML said is a record pace.
Stock exposure generally is at a three-year low. Hedge funds also rotated out of financials and consumer discretionary stocks.
It’s become impossible to watch a sports broadcast without sitting through at least a dozen ads for one sports betting agency or another, and as each agency looks for an edge over the other, it’s never been easier to place a bet. A punter no longer has to visit the TAB in person to place a bet, with Sportsbet to Unibet, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Tom Waterhouse and more offering live in-game betting from a smartphone. It’s also never been easier for punters to lose money.
Brisbane startup Puntaa wants to give these punters back control by letting them bet against friends rather than a faceless system. It’s a peer to peer social betting app that lets friends bet on anything, whether it be sports or inside jokes, with the goal not so much to win cash but to win bragging rights.
The startup was founded by Jordan Oudejans, a racing trader and Puntaa’s industry expert, Damon Oudejans, who takes care of branding, UI/UX, and product growth, and Nick Heaney, charged with the commercial and legal aspects of the business. The idea for the app stemmed from Jordan’s experience watching an AFL match with friends and noticing that everyone was betting each other on various events.
“Of course the bets were never paid out, mainly because no one had cash on them, or the precise amount,” said Damon Oudejans. “So Jordan and I got chatting and we quickly realised there was a gap in the market. There was no platform that allowed users to bet their mates, track those bets and easily pay the bets out. We validated the idea through surveys, and liked the results so we got cracking.”
In addition to the surveys, Oudejans said the trio largerly knew what their target audience was after because they themselves, and their mates, are the target audience.
“You could say we know the target market pretty well! We love sport, having beers, getting together and throwing around banter, as you do in social situations,” he said.
The app works by having a user create an account and then add their friends. Just like the big betting sites such as Sportsbet, a user deposits money into their account and makes bets from that balance. To create a bet, the user inputs the bet terms, selects the amount they want to be, can apply odds, and then add the friends they want to bet with. The other user will receive a bet notification and can accept, decline, or adjust the bet terms. Puntaa takes a 4 percent cut on the net winnings of each bet, and bets are self-regulated by users: rather than the money automatically being transferred to the winner once a result has eventuated, the loser has to manually transfer the money to the winner by clicking a button.
Oudejans explained that this power is given to the users because social betting isn’t really about the cash but the “banter.”
“Cash reinforces the behaviour but beating your mate and delivering some banter is the real value. Puntaa is about having fun, getting together with your friends and sharing experiences. In general betting or gambling these days has lost the fun and social side, we are setting out to change that,” Oudejans said.
Given that bets are made between friends, if people disagree on the outcome, Oudejans said they can dispute it outside the app, though the founders do intend to build in a rating system in the near future to “keep people honest and weed out any people who are using the platform in bad faith.”
Gambling is truly a huge industry in Australia: data from IBIS World put industry revenue for 2014-15 at $3.4 billion, with the four largest operators accounting for 75 percent of this revenue. Gambling is also a problematic industry in this country; Australia leads the world in gambling losses, with a 2010 report from the Productivity Commission finding that the average loss for each adult that gambled was $1,500 per year. While an older person sitting at the pokies might be the first image that comes to mind when thinking of a gambler, young men – Puntaa’s target audience – are in fact the biggest gamblers, thanks in large part to the proliferation of sports betting platforms.
In terms of competing in a space dominated by a handful of giants, Oudejans doesn’t see the big bookmakers as competition, per se. Puntaa was created because it was something the founders thought their friends would use with each other, and they aim to keep building the product around the community.
“I think we have authenticity too, which is huge when you are selling anything these days. People can sniff out the fakes and forced advertising pretty easily. We are not 50+ year old guys in suits creating a betting product because we had the cash and connections and want to extract money from losing bettors. We built this from the ground up for our mates and ourselves so there is a sense of community around it, which is something competitors can’t buy,” Oudejans said.
Puntaa’s closest competitor is perhaps Adelaide startup Punt Club, which also focuses on friends getting together and exchanging banter. However, while Puntaa allows for one off bets on anything from sports to inside jokes between friends, Punt Club has users to create an online punter’s club through the app in which members deposit money every week, with members then taking turns to bet on behalf of the club every week. Another similar startup was Bet Your Balls, launched last year, which focused on sports tipping and banter – a common theme – but has now pivoted to Sportsnuts, which allows users to compete with pro athletes to tip winners though no money is involved.
When it comes to limiting losses, Puntaa currently has a deposit and bet limit of $500, though there are no limits on the amount of bets that can be placed in any given period of time. However, the founders see Puntaa as a platform where friends bet $5 or $10 back and forth and eventually come out even – again, the focus is on the banter that goes with each bet.
The three cofounders have largely self funded Puntaa, though Oudejans said they have also raised some funds from two private investors. The startup was accepted into the first muru-D accelerator at River City Labs earlier this year, for which it received $20,000 in funding for 3 percent equity.
Puntaa was launched privately last weekend. The Android app will be available in the next week, while the iOS app is currently under review to get on the App Store.
How to Win at Craps: Know the Odds
by Bus Green of Predictem.com
One of the best ways to increase your chances of winning when playing Craps is to know the odds. There are many good Craps bets that you can make giving you good odds against the house. If you make Craps odds on best bets it gives you much better odds than with any other casino game.
Here you will learn the bets in Craps that give you the best odds. Below are the various bets you can make and what percentage advantage the house gets with each bet. In the game of Craps there are over 40 bets that you can make and here are some of the more popular Craps bets and their house advantage.
• Buy Bets – 4.76% - To get true odds you will pay a 5% commission to the house, so the 4 and the 10 are the best bets, as they bring the house edge down to 4.76%
• Hard Ways – A Hard Way bet can be made in 2 different ways on the 4,6,8, and 10. The payoff for the 6 and 8 is 9-1, with a house edge of 9.09%, and the payout on the 4 and 10 is 7-1, with a house edge of 11.11%.
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How to Even Out the Odds in Your Favor
In Craps each throw of the dice is unique, so there is no way to predict what will be on the upcoming throw. What you need to know to get the best odds and improve your chances to win is to bet with the best bets for Craps.
The first thing you should know is how to bet on the pass line and then apply Craps odds to reduce the house edge. The pass line bet is made before the shooter throws the dice. If they throw either a 7 or an 11 you will win with them. If they throw a 2,3, or 12 you will lose with them. However, if they throw a 4,5,6,8,9, or 10 they will achieve a point, which is the number that the shooter will roll before they roll a 7. This is where you can then apply Craps odds.
The odds bet can reduce the advantage of the house and increase your chances to win. How it is done is as follows: After you make a bet on the pass line and the shooter has achieved their point the house may let you make another bet, which is referred to as the odds bet. You will place the odds bet behind your primary pass line bet on the Craps table. If the shooter makes their point you will be paid even money on your primary pass line bet. You will also get true odds for the odds bet you made, which reduces the advantage of the house. These true odds are:
• If the point is 4 or 10 you will win 2:1
• If the point is 5 or 9 you will win 3:2
• If the point is 6 or 8 you will win 6:5
The house advantage of the pass line bet is only 1.41%. When you make another odds bet you will lower the house advantage more. A pass line bet with single odds will have a house edge of .85%. A pass line bet with double odds has a house advantage of .61%. You can also take 4,5, or 6 times odds, which will depend on the point number.
• If the point is 4 or 10 you can get 3x odds
• If the point is 5 or 9 you can get 4x odds
• If the point is 6 or 8 you can get 5x odds
So, what are the Best Bets in Craps?
When betting with the shooter the best bets are the pass and come bets with full odds. There are good Craps bets, in terms of the odds, when betting on the house with don’t pass bets and don’t come bets will full odds, but you have to be aware of a couple of things. Craps is the most social game in the casino. There is perhaps more interaction with other players when playing Craps. Because of this if you are betting on the house with don’t come and don’t pass bets, you are betting against the shooter. Making these bets will give you good odds, but you may not be popular with the other players on the table, especially the shooter. If you are betting against the majority of people on the Craps table it will be less of a social game and people will not be as friendly to you, as you are betting for them to lose. To keep the game fun and social you should stick with the come bets and pass bets, with full odds, betting on the shooter.
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1. KNOW THE BASICS: There is a wealth of terminology and information within the gambling world. Here’s a quick rundown of the factoids and phrases that you’ll need to be comfortable with to make effective wagers.
The Spread: In most games (especially basketball and football) there is a point spread which is very popular for betters (other sports like baseball, only offer the money line and odds for betters). Favorites are denoted with a – sign while underdogs are assigned a + sign. For instance, the Knicks if the knicks were 3 point underdogs against the Nuggets, they would be +3 (you could also say the Knicks are getting 3). The Nuggets would be -3 (or giving 3). If you felt that the Knicks were likely to lose by 2 points or less or win the contest, you would take the Knicks (+3). If you like the Nuggets to win by a margin of 4 or more, you would pick the Nuggets (-3). If the Nuggets won 99-96, this would be considered a PUSH- and all money would be returned. Betting on the spread in singular games usually pays slightly less than 1-1 (or if you wagered $20 and won you would recieve around $19 in return, or $39 total back)
The Money Line: If you don’t want to get mixed up in the spread or want to bet on baseball, then you have to understand the money line. The money line is simple- pick a winner. If you pick a favorite to win without using the point spread (for example, UCONN is -12 vs. Notre Dame) the payout will be very low (you will only win about $5 on a $20 wager). It works in the reverse when you pick an underdog to win out right as well, however (if you have a hunch that Notre Dame will upset UCONN, the payout will be more like $60 on your $20). The oddsmakers determine the odds for the moneyline and they are constantly changed and updated.
Parlays: If you want to really make some money gambling, then you can try a parlay. A parlay is a combination of multiple games, and the payouts can be huge. You can pick on the money line or the spread. An example of a three game parlay would be picking the Knicks (+3), Hawks (+7), and Clippers (-8) (If you win the payout would be about $100 on your $20). You can also play it safe and pick straight winners on the money line, however, the payout is much less.
Teasers: You can tease the spread up or down to increase your chances of winning. For example, take the same parlay from the example above and make it a 5 point teaser. That would make the bet as follows: Knicks (+8), Hawks (+12) and Clippers (-3)…the payout is not as good as a parlay, but your chances of winning are better.
2. FIND THE RIGHT OUTLET: Unless you know someone who is attached to the mob, your best bet is to gamble online. There are plenty of safe and legal sites for sports gambling, but, for my money, the best is www.sportsbook.com. It’s user friendly and very secure. But don’t take my word for it, do your own homework to find out what site has the most to offer.
3. DO YOUR RESEARCH: If you’re not a high roller, you have to make every single cent count when you put it on the line. Think small the first couple weeks. Turn $50 into $75 or $100 into $150, and do it slowly. Each night take the time to reasearch the games. Look up stats, injury reports, trends. There are plenty of websites out there for you to choose from. ESPN and Yahoo Sports are two simple, yet reliable places to start for beginners. Here’s some of the basic stats and facts you want to keep in mind:
A) Who’s Home? A simple yet reliable bit of information for determining winners, a more prelevant advantage in football than any other sport, but something that you never want to overlook. Look at teams records at home vs. on the road as well.
B) Who’s Hot? Don’t pick a team just because they have the better record. The Cavs might have a better record than the Clippers but don’t forget to see how they’ve played LATELY. The Cavs might be 4-6 while the Clips may have gone 7-3 in the last 10 games
C) Who’s Healthy? Check often for the latest injury reports. Even if it’s only a role player and it’s only this one game, it can make a difference, so don’t ignore it.
4. HEDGE YOUR BETS: For every $1000 parlay you make, make sure you are making “safe” bets to cover the amount you risk. Here’s a good distribution for splitting your money.
$10 on a risky parlay (6-12 games, something that pays up to 10-1)
$10 on a “safe” parlay (less games, and pick winners not the spread, make it for a 3-1 or 5-1 payout)
$10 on a 7pt teaser (must pick 3 games, some gambling sites do not allow this kind of bet because it pays the gambler so often, it pays the winner $8 on top of their $10)
5. DON’T GET OVER CONFIDENT: The safer the bet, the better. Think about the long term. Turn your $100 into $300 in the course of a month. If you think about winning ridiculous bets to make $1000s in a day, you might as well play the lottery. Sports betting can be a science, a unique and skillful hobby for the sports entusiast, but it can also become a horrible addiction. Don’t bet if you are depressed, using drugs and alcohol, or have addictive tendencies. Don’t bet unless you have the money to do so. Gambling money should be extra spending cash, do not rely on it to pay your bills or rent, it doesn’t work that way. There is no such thing as a “safe” bets…some bets are safer than others, but because of the nature of sports, anything can happen; so expect that it will.
6. HAVE FUN AND ROOT FOR YOUR TEAMS: Relax and enjoy yourself. If you root for your team they will scientifically do better (just kidding, but it can’t hurt). Good luck picking winners!
If you understand the basics of horse race betting, you’re probably ready to find out how to win at horse betting. In this guide, you’ll learn how the horse track makes money, and what you can do to gain an edge in horse racing.
How the Track Makes Money on Horse Races
As with the “house edge” in casino gambling, horse racing tracks need to make money to stay in business. In order to determine your payoff, consider this example of how the track makes its money:
Let’s say you and a wholesale jerseys friend want flip coin. For every heads that comes up, you win $5; for every tails, your friend wins $5. The coin you use is completely fair, and you each have a 50 percent chance of winning on each toss. You’re happily flipping and exchanging money with each other when another friend comes along. Let’s call this friend PM. PM wants in on the action, but doesn’t want to lose any money. PM wants $2 per flip, without making any bets. So every time a heads come up now, your friend loses $5. You’ll get $3 and PM gets $2. For every tails, you lose $5, your friend gets $3, and PM gets another $2.
Because of this setup, PM is going to come out ahead in the long run, regardless of how long you and your friend keep flipping the coin. PM stands for pari-mutuel, and is the betting system a racetrack uses.
Every flip of the coin, you’ll either win $3 or lose $5, but PM always gets $2. Racetracks use a pari-mutuel system to make their money; tracks take a percentage of every dollar wagered on a race before making any payouts. The percentage is usually higher on exotic bets than it is on win, place and show bets, and is always set by the gambling commission of the state where the racetrack is located. The percentage allows the track to pay its operating expenses, provide purses to the owners, and cover any government taxes. The track usually has a take between 15 and 20 percent of all money wagered by the bettors.How to Get an Edge at Horse Races
Betting on horse races can be murky territory in a pari-mutuel system. The best way to win is to bet judiciously to stay above water when wagering on the ponies.
In fact, betting on horse racing is almost like playing the stock market (talk about gambling!). Winning at horse betting will take a bit of luck and the careful use of the information you have on the horses. You either must have superior evaluation skills or information not available to other bettors.
The most likely way to gain an edge is with the former—evaluating public information—is known as handicapping. To handicap a race, you must closely examine all the information you can, and assign probabilities on a horse’s chances of winning a given race. The official track handicappers do an excellent job of this when setting the morning line odds. But they can only go so far. Once the morning line odds ?Bienvenidos! are set, odds shift to public hands, changing based on the wagers made by the bettors.
The best way to get ahead is by looking for horses that are likely to win despite other bettors’ opinions. An “overlay” is the term used to describe a horse with a higher probability to win compared to the implied probability of its win by the posted odds. A horse with a lower chance than the bettors think is known as an “underlay.” You can usually profit by betting against an underlay.
Look for horses with a large overlay or a large and clearly ludicrous underlay to give yourself an edge at the races. Let’s go over the ways to figure out which horses fit into which category.How to Find an Overlay
The odds set forth by the public bettors are generally a pretty good estimation of how a horse will perform in a race. Your job is to find major mistakes made by the betting crowd for your wagers to be profitable, since the track’s take is so large. Most handicapping systems require a lot of time and effort reviewing daily race statistics. Casual bettors need an easier, more practical route to take.
Finding a bias is the best way to find a large overlay for an occasional fan. The bias is found in the track itself, and gives one horse a greater advantage over its competitors. Bias arises when a horse is more likely to win racing on a specific section of the track. Bias is separated into two categories: a slow rail and a fast rail. A slow rail means horses racing away from the inside rail have the advantage; a fast rail is the opposite, giving the advantage to horses running nearer to the rail.
The weather is the biggest factor in the condition of the rail. Wet tracks can change the bias as they dry, and as cheap jerseys more races are run throughout the day. The bias will usually stay the same if the moisture level in the track remains constant from race to race. A dry track caught in a rain shower changes the bias just like a drying track that started the day wet. You may notice a strong bias in the first couple of races. If you do, watch a few more to check whether the bias shifts. Stick to betting the last few races, cheap nba jerseys when you can be a little more certain about the bias, or just watch the races today and try again tomorrow.
A fast rail gives an advantage to the inside horses. Any track can, and some tracks always, have a fast rail. You can tell there’s a fast rail if most of the horses with an inside post position win the races. A fast rail usually gives inside horses an early lead, even if the track newspaper says other horses often have early speed. Horses will appear to run more strongly on the inside rail during the race than those in an outer position. If a horse near the rail takes an early lead, it can usually hold on to it all the way to the finish.
If you notice a fast rail is present, you should either bet on an inside horse or hang on to your Sports money. A quick glance at the Daily Racing Form can give you some insight, too. If an inside horse isn’t listed as having early speed, or it’s just not the better-looking horse, don’t bet on the race.
On the other hand, you might consider making an exacta or quinella bet if the two best horses have the two inside posts.
A slow rail gives the advantage to the outside horses instead of the inside ones. An outside horse sprinting to the front of the pack, or the field bunching together during the race, is an indication there’s a slow rail on the track. The field will bunch if the lead jockey moves his or her horse to the inside rail (because the distance around the track is shorter), causing the horse to slow down and making it difficult for other racers to pass by. If the outside track allows more speed than the inside, it’s easy for a horse to catch up to the inside post, even if the inside horse doesn’t lose speed.
Favorites seldom win when the rail is slow. The leader at the top of the stretch can rarely pull through to win, unless it’s running far from the rail. Most races are with a slow rail are won by long shots, and half or more by the outside third of the participants.
Bet on the outside horse if the odds are 2 to 1 or higher. If the odds aren’t that good, wait for another race, or even another day.Capitalizing on a Situation That’s Too Good to Be True
To bet against the underlay—the horses with more money wagered on it than it truly deserves—you’re on the lookout for the horse that’s too good to be true. It’s not exceedingly difficult to figure out whether the horse is truly too good to be true; you can determine its status with minimal analysis. If the horse really is too good to be true, don’t make a bet. On the flip side, if it’s not too good to be true, bet on all that horse’s opponents. Pay special attention for any opponents that are likely to win at higher odds, because those are the bets you really want!
The easiest place to find too-good-to-be-true horses worth betting against is in a claiming race. The cheaper the claimer, the better for you! Here’s an example: You’re checking out a $3000 claiming race, and a horse is entered that’s had good performance in the past. She’s even beaten some $30,000 horses. It doesn’t seem like she belongs in a race with $3000 claimers. Would her owner be willing to sell her for $3000 if she could still win against $30,000 horses? It’s not likely, but bettors wagered on her like she could still beat out a $30,000 opponent and would surely dash her way to first against lower $3000 horses. Her odds finished at 3 to 5, and she only came in third.
The bettors thought of her as the $30,000 horse she started, rather than the $3000 claimer she’d turned into over time. Cheap claimers shouldn’t bet down to 3 to 5. If you happen to find one that gets that low, it’s a good bet that horse is too good to be true! Spread your bets on the opponents of any too-good-to-be-true horse you find. That way, whichever horses wins, you can still walk away with a healthy chunk of winnings!Hunting for Treasure Among Horses
Races with a purse near or equal to the claiming race are the best places to find too-good-to-be-true horses. Check the official program to find races with cheap claimers and approximately equal purses. Once you do, keep your eye on the tote board to see if any horse is being bet down, meaning the odds drop below even money. If you see a horse’s odds drop to 4 to 5 or lower, take a look at the Daily Racing Form and find out if the bettors have the wrong idea, thinking the horse is the best bet on the field. The following information can help:
How fast the horse actually runs influences how fast people think it can run, which in turn determines the value of the horse. Losing a race can lower a horse’s value, just like winning can raise it. A horse can be too good to be true if it wins a claiming race, but reappears later at the same claiming price and purse. Under normal circumstances, it would’ve moved higher after winning. It may also get bet down if it won its last race by wide margin against the same quality of horse it’s up against today. Older horses aren’t likely to be claimed at any price, because it may not have too many races left in it. Watch out for this, because if an older horse is bet down, it may just mean it’s of better stock than its opponents, but it’s not going to be purchased because of its age. When this happens, that horse is definitely not too good to be true.
Don’t bet too early on a horse you think is too good to be true! It’s possible the horse may not get bet down enough, but even worse, it may be scratched, or removed, from the race. Betting down doesn’t mean a horse will be scratched, but it might be at such a low claiming price because of infirmity or age. It may have a limp, and the track vet will cheap nfl jerseys have to kick it out of the race. The value of bets will be greatly reduced if the horse you thought was too good to be true is scratched.
© Sports Predictions 2018