Super Bowl Betting Line Movement - Sports Predictions

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Super Bowl Betting Line Movement

Category: Betting

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Betting Public Controls Super Bowl Spread

“This is the one line a year that the public controls what happens and they usually believe what they saw last.”

Words of wisdom from Jay Kornegay, Westgate Super Book VP. This is the one time the general betting public has the power to influence the biggest wagering game of all sports. The analysis is very similar to the law of supply and demand with an emotional twist.

The supply side of public bettors is like the masses coming out to play this one time and then retreating to their normal environment. It just might be their only time visiting a book all year. There is no shortage of the supply side for the market to function in but some anxiety about the huge volume of participation and how to manage and balance it with precision.

The demand side is the controlling factor in the line movement. Too much demand on one side has to be avoided. But the public has varying opinions on most sporting events and the Super Bowl is a magnet for all those talking heads. “Who do you like in the Super Bowl” is a question for the ages. The demand side can vary right up till game time. At the end of Super Bowl week on Friday, Saturday and Sunday is where about 80% of the betting action will occur. Super Bowl 51 has split action demand on either side with the betting public evenly divided on the Pats and Falcons.

The close to evenly divided demand is controlling the line movement and keeping the spread at -3.

Could this be an indication of a very close game when public bettors are close to 50/50 with their money backed opinions. “Sharp bettors” will usually go against public opinion and bet in the five figure neighborhood. However, the sharps cannot outdraw the supply of public action on this game. The books will take notice of larger bets from five figures and up but the greater supply of public bets will make or break their day.

Most books will shade the line one-half point even if the public stays evenly divided. That means the closing line will be either the Patriots at -3.5 or -2.5. After all the hoopla leading up to the kick-off, the books do not want to see a push (tie) on the point spread. But that one-half point could be a big dilemma if the final score is a 3 point victory for the Patriots. A final 3 point win by the Patriots is a no decision if the books leave the spread at -3. All bettors get their money back except for certain exotic bets like teasers. Shading the spread at -2.5 or -3.5 depends on how fine the books want to tweak the line to avoid a push. A last second field-goal in a tied game is a real possibility for the books and bettors. Does the one-half point come into play ?

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